In pivoting to the Asia-Pacific region, the U.S. could undermine its own global leadership by turning away from Europe and the Middle East, where trust in the U.S. security blanket has eroded. Countries in those places are edging increasingly toward self-reliance.

The AUKUS defense agreement continues to shake up relations in Southeast Asia, as the nations caught between Australia and China move to protect stability in the region as the staredown between the U.S. and China intensifies.

Some in India are advocate an American alliance to counter China. But such an alignment would be contrary to India’s founding principles of autonomy. It would also erode India’s standing in the BRICS and SCO groups and damage its relations with Russia.

The new three-way alliance reflects a new U.S. orientation toward its partners as it seeks to raise barriers to China. Giving a $50 billion cold shoulder to France over nuclear submarine technology is just one example.

The Quad’s loose confederation of democratic, U.S.-backed states in Asia and Australia was meant to stand-up to China’s economic might, but it may have presented China with ample motivation to fight tooth-and-nail for recognition.

The Quad Security Dialogue will not get far, mainly because three of its members don’t want to compromise relations with China. The dialogue will likely focus on form over content and symbolism over substance. It will do little to shape Indo-Pacific geopolitics.

The Quad, a revitalized clique of democratic nations surrounding China, has been criticized by Chinese as a thinly-veiled ploy to contain its growth. It could prove to be a formidable obstacle, if the U.S. maneuvers correctly.