The most likely scenario for a degree of success is that Iran stops short of building a weapon. This would pressure the U.S. while keeping strategic risks under control. But prospects for trouble are looming this year. All parties will have to work for the best while preparing for the worst.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict raises uncertainties in negotiations for a renewed Iran nuclear deal. Thorny problems remain. But while there are negatives, there are also opportunities.

Both the United States and Iran want the other to make the first move. But even if the Biden administration were to lift sanctions tomorrow, international investors will not return to the Iranian market quickly. They fear a new Republican administration in the U.S. will scuttle the program again.

The United States wants Iran make the first concession — such as ending its uranium enrichment activities. That would be significant for Iran. But because of mistrust, Iran is likely to wait for the U.S. to make the first move.

The news of an agreement struck between two of America’s adversaries made waves and raised the alarm for a potential showdown, but the potential for military coordination isn’t the main focus of the agreement.

Mixing questions about nuclear reactors and missiles with matters involving Iran’s political system is a recipe for failure. Separating the issues will allow the U.S. to return to the Iran deal more easily, while addressing other concerns in a different forum.

Iran is blaming Israel for the assassination, but its response has been restrained. It doesn’t want to provoke Trump into launching a last-minute attack on its nuclear facilities. But the guns are locked and loaded. When will the shooting begin?

U.S. return to the Iran nuclear deal could be difficult. Much has changed in the world in the past four years, including the recent assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist. China’s help may be needed more than ever.

In the wake of rising U.S.-Iranian tension, there seems to be no clear path forward – and no clear winner. China stands to pluck the fruit of possible conflict in the region.