However histrionic the demagogic oratory of President Trump has been, his strategy to revitalize American manufacturing will be better served by exporting more to China, not decreasing Chinese imports. China’s gigantic market has thus become the golden apple of discord in an accelerating geo-economic competition between the United States and Germany, which already enjoys significant production networks within the Middle Kingdom. Yet unlike the days of the Boxer Revolution and the alliance of eight Western nations, China can this time choose her major commercial partners.

Without a question, it is still too early to predict the exact trajectory of Trump’s actual policy in office, given his penchant for policy equivocation and tendency for self-contradiction. Deals like the TTP now hang up in the air. There are also opportunities for China in the new administration. Doubts over Trump’s temperament, judgment, experience, and commitment to the global order could encourage a growing number of Asian nations to reconsider their relations with Washington in favor of Beijing. The Trump administration faces an uphill battle to reassure allies in the region that America will continue to preserve and provide public international goods in the region, stand strong with its allies, and deepen its economic engagement with Asia.

Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte has been raising hackles across the Asia-Pacific since his inauguration in June. In his latest broadside directed at the United States, Duterte once again asserted that he wanted all foreign troops out of the Philippines and that he would eventually nix the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). Although such a move does not appear to be imminent, it is worth considering its potential implications for the region.

Under Duterte’s administration, the Philippines are moving toward major policy shifts, particularly in regards to U.S. and China relations. China is an emerging outbound investor with a demonstrated financial, technological, and engineering capacity to accomplish major infrastructure projects, such as railways, which can have a transformative impact on Philippine economic development. The U.S. has become a quieter ally in the region, and other regional states have long been diversifying both their economic and security partners to spread risk and to avoid getting entangled in big power tussles. Duterte is following these initiatives now, as well.

As Chinese leaders reiterate, the Pacific is wide enough to support the development needs of both China and the U.S. China’s huge development has never relied on challenging American leadership in the international system, and the Chinese achievements have contributed to global economy and prosperity. Eager to work with the U.S. for peace and development, China sees no reason for the American game in China’s periphery.

As tensions escalate, the players will eventually go against US national interests, with potential for conflict and instability. The only viable path to peace and security is deepening strategic cooperation and pursuing common security across the region.

Track II diplomacy’s results remain mixed, but it takes only one successful attempt to provide concrete and specific agenda items for formal talks. It is within this lens that the Ramos-Fu August 2016 meeting in Hong Kong could be appreciated.

Ted Galen Carpenter discusses the tensions between the U.S., China, and other Asian nations involved in the South China Sea dispute. The U.S. military policy and support initiatives regarding the Philippines, South Korea, and Vietnam are outlined, and Carpenter explains the negative effect this may have with Chinese relations. While the regional activity does appear to be balancing behavior, it also indicates that littoral states are uneasy of Beijing’ conduct in the South China Seas.

American foreign policy debates tend to focus disproportionally on the Middle East. To correct this tendency, the Obama administration’s adopted the so-called pivot to Asia (aka “rebalancing”): to refocus U.S. policy in proper proportion to the full range of the nation’s challenges and interests. Indeed, this broader perspective on today’s interconnected world and diligent approach to building the necessary coalitions, are the main elements that distinguish Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton’s pragmatic approach from the Republicans’ bullheaded approach.

The Philippine president’s China visit revealed that countries in the region are thirsty for stability, solidarity and common development, and should be eager to eliminate the various misgivings regarding the South China Sea. Countries in and outside the area should cherish the positive effects of the visit and jointly preserve peace and stability in the South China Sea.