U.S. policy has been greatly influenced by domestic anti-Cuba forces. The idea of engagement led to the loss of two Democratic seats in South Florida — a high price. The challenge for Biden now is to find a balance that avoids incurring the wrath of a key bloc of voters.

While the U.S. pays lip service to the notion that ASEAN is at the core of the Indo-Pacific region, U.S. actions show it is side-stepping to another direction. By contrast, China’s attitude toward Southeast Asia looks much more sincere.

The idea that ASEAN countries rely on the U.S. for security and on China for economy may be overstated. What is true is that they benefit from cooperation with China under the principle of mutual benefit and reciprocity, and they don’t want to rock the boat.

The ever-outspoken Rodrigo Duterte has navigated a contentious and dynamic situation in Southeast Asia with his bombastic leadership, which has disrupted a nearly century-old relationship with the U.S. No longer satisfied with compliance to American security concerns, Duterte may prove to be a formidable obstacle for Biden’s designs on establishing power in the Pacific.

The United States does not neighbor China, but it exerts considerable influence on countries in East Asia. China hopes all will act in good faith to build an open and inclusive Asia that embraces peace, prosperity and win-win cooperation.

China recently initiated a wave of diplomatic courtship of ASEAN nations, as both sides work to navigate the reality of China’s resurgent gravity in the Pacfic region.

China and ASEAN countries have maintained contact relating to the Code of Conduct. The main messages delivered are that progress has been made, efforts have been undertaken for the step-by-step resumption of COC negotiations and an environment conducive to the negotiations will be created.

The Biden administration faces many constraints and limitations. And the two sides do not appear to have enough political will to reach a grand strategic bargain. Thus, the summit is unlikely to smooth the bumpy road of bilateral relations.

The concept is a foreign one, as China has always stressed the independence of all nation-states as they make their own decisions both domestically and regionally. Moreover, the United States will not be leaving the Middle East anytime soon.

In Afghanistan, the withdrawal of American troops is far easier said than done. Overlapping factors complicate the matter so se-verely that it may not be possible for the U.S. to achieve its goals in a few months. A quagmire will be left behind in any case, and who will be responsible for the human toll?