The tendency to retreat into the comfort that the past provides will only be reinforced when the President and the Prime Minister meet on May 4 aboard a U.S. warship docked in New York Harbour to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Battle of the Coral Sea. On the one hand, the symbolism is powerful: two close, longstanding allies marking a pivotal moment in which the threat of Japanese imperialism was turned back. On the other, it projects a view of the relationship that is literally moored to memory, failing to engage in the more difficult conversations about what the American posture in Asia will look like in the years ahead, and what that means for Australia.

Contrary to some commentary, the American political system has not been swept away by a wave of populism, and no one should underestimate US institutions.

Observing the changing dynamics in the United States and elsewhere in the world, the unsettling question is: Will the United States follow the experience of centralized Confucian power—and by default the Communist Party of China (CPC)—to create a Hamiltonian world for Hamiltonians?

When Donald Trump became the 45th President of the United States on January 20, many in the U.S. and other parts of the world tended to believe that the U.S. would experience dramatic changes in the first two years of his presidency, creating a world full of uncertainties.

Trump’s ascension to power was bad news for Beijing, especially because his “Make America Great Again” vision collides with Xi’s “Chinese dream” to make this the “Chinese century.” Yet China thus far has not only escaped any punitive American counteraction on trade and security matters, but also the expected Trump-Xi bonhomie at Mar-a-Lago could advertise that the more things change, the more they stay the same in U.S. foreign policy.

The stakes for the first Xi-Trump summit are high—but so also is the opportunity to stabilize relations and set a positive tone for future interactions. President Xi and the Chinese side will come to the summit extremely well prepared on a wide range of complex issues confronting the two governments. The question is: how well prepared will the new American president be?

The first month of Trump’s presidency has been a useful primer for Chinese officials, albeit an unpleasant one. China was certainly watching the Trump-Abe meeting for cues on how the new president conducts himself with foreign leaders.

Most of Trump’s rhetoric and new thinking about foreign relations have not materialized, and he basically has returned to the old track of conventional US diplomatic thinking. “Obsolete” NATO is once again the “unbreakable alliance”, and his attitude toward China is also now in line with previous US policy.

The new Trump administration is well aware of the significance of China-US relations for the US, and the Chinese side is also eager to see a rapid and smooth transition of bilateral ties. Both sides, therefore, share a desire to have their leaders meet as soon as possible, and Secretary Tillerson’s visit this week has created a sound atmosphere for the meeting.

The Trump administration’s China policy is still in the works, but its goal would not be to sabotage China-US relations, but to extract maximum benefit from the relationship. Reasonable, calculated and restrained counter-moves may promote the other side to adjust its policies.