All indications are that Taiwan’s new leader and the governing apparatus around her are half-hearted about the 1992 Consensus and strengthening cross-Strait relations. Her inaugural speech reflects not American-style candor but Japanese-style victimhood, and does not offer a viable way forward. A period of uncertainty and unpleasant surprises in cross-Strait relations lies ahead.

As long as both Beijing and Taipei accept the historical truth of the “1992 consensus”, and identify with its core implications, the Chinese president pointed out, they will share a common political foundation for maintaining benign interaction.

To maintain the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations that Beijing and Taipei have enjoyed for the past seven years, which have benefitted both sides, the winners of the Taiwan election must abandon any ambition for Taiwan independence and recognize the 1992 Consensus and its one-China principle.

The 2016 election has shaken up Taiwan’s political scene in a big way, as voters in a post-industrial society seek alternatives to the traditional parties and agendas. It foreshadows a deep transformation of Taiwanese politics, and the ramifications for cross-Strait relations will take time to evolve.

Ms. Tsai Ing-wen, 59, Taiwan's first female, newly-elected president, leads the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which has traditionally advocated for a strong Taiwanese identity Her strength moving forward will be contingent on the economy improving, which ironically, may depend on her relationship and guanxi with Mainland China.

Taiwan looks set on Saturday to elect an independence-leaning opposition leader as its first woman president who could usher in a new round of uncertainty with China, the massive neighbor that claims the self-ruled island as its sacred territory.

The recent U.S. arms sales decision regarding Taiwan led to a more moderate Chinese government reaction than seen in many previous transactions. The U.S. arms transfers to Taiwan serve multiple purposes and are likely to continue whoever is the leader of the next government in Taipei and in Washington.

Breaking the cycle of tension in the Taiwan Strait requires bold initiatives that mean abandoning deeply held desires in China, Taiwan, and the United States. Chinese leaders should perhaps at least think about the previously unthinkable: accepting an independent Taiwan—under very strict conditions.

If the ‘92 Consensus is respected, which is already the bottom line for a healthy cross-strait relationship, interactions could advance in ways benefiting both sides, which will continue to enjoy the bonus of the peace and economic cooperation. Efforts to put distance between Taipei and Beijing, whether made by domestic or outside parties, can only damage both sides of the relationship.

The leaders reaffirmed the fundamentally important role of the 1992 Consensus in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, offering a status quo of peace and development. It provides guidance to the future development of cross-Strait relations, and all parties should value that no matter who wins Taiwan’s 2016 elections.