Four key opportunities present themselves in Northeast Asia, and it's important to grasp them while we can. Compared with the various major structural challenges in the region, the opportunities are few and small. But there are signs that the situation is improving, albeit slowly.

The People’s Republic of China wishes to increase domestic consumption to reduce reliance on western trade, technology, and knowledge. One attempt at this is inviting western companies to learn their business strategies, enable domestic competitors, and use mass media to sway consumer spending. This strategy has had mixed success, and increasing domestic consumption will be difficult as the economic recovery from COVID is slower than expected.

Recent headlines about the origins of Covid-19 have brought a heated rhetoric over the topic back to light. Ultimately, there’s been reflexive jumping to conclusions on all sides, exacerbated by big egos and party partisanship, and to suggest the mystery has been solved is misleading.

In March 2022, the Chinese government set a target of 5-5.5% GDP growth for the year. At the time, such growth levels appeared perfectly attainable. But within a month, the Omicron variant had arrived, triggering strict lockdowns that, while stemming the spread of the coronavirus, caused serious damage to the supply and demand sides of the economy. China’s growth rate for 2022 was just 3%.

It is the mission of the think tank to stay on high alert against potential risks and explore possible solutions to challenges. The international system is currently undergoing the most dramatic changes since the end of the Cold War. The peaceful and open international environment, which has been taken for granted over the last four decades, is now overshadowed by formidable challenges. In this context, it is the think tank’s responsibility to explore and identify external security risks that might pose threats to China in the months and years ahead.

Before COVID-19 vaccines were developed and distributed, China’s strict approach to controlling the virus resulted in fewer deaths and a much lower death rate per million people than in many other countries. But while these successes were impressive in late 2020 and early 2021, effective vaccines and treatments have become readily available since then, leading the World Health Organization to declare that the end of the pandemic is in sight.

Last October’s G20 Leaders’ Summit – held in Rome, and hosted by then-Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi – produced a declaration brimming with promises to “address today’s most pressing global challenges” and “converge upon common efforts to recover better from the COVID-19 crisis and enable sustainable and inclusive growth” across the world. What a difference a year makes.

It’s a good time to reflect on lessons learned in the pandemic era and look beyond it. If we let things continue as they are, widening income disparities will inevitably promote political divergence, social polarization and vulnerability.

China has chosen to accept some short-term pain for the promise of long-term growth and stability. Some people may grumble, but the vast majority support the effort to save lives, a core value that’s deeply embedded in the country’s ethical tradition.

Geopolitical risk, sanctions, and covid in China are redefining how we think about the future of global supply chains. Nations must start considering how to better secure their supply chains through regional trade partnerships, reshoring essential manufacturing capabilities, and sourcing goods from multiple nations and regions.