Any easing of China-U.S. relations will have twists and turns, and material improvement is unlikely to come soon. But both sides can learn from America’s Cold War standoff with the USSR, when mechanisms were built that avoided war. That process can be followed again.

Interstate political relations are changing the dynamics of the international system. China’s relationship with Russia has become a tool for balancing the shifting pres-sures. But no country can predict the consequences of war. Staying out of it may be the best way to maximize gains.

The Russia-Ukraine war has shaken Europe’s energy security, triggering major adjustments in supply chains, consumption and renewable energy development. The conflict and its spillover effects suggest that a new economic cold war may already be underway.

The tattered U.S.-Russia relationship serves as one example of how far a “Cold War” can go when America escalates the situation. And by repeating these same steps with China today, the U.S. might be pushing two of its rivals together - the exact situation that Washington wants to avoid.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is forcing people to rethink the role of today’s international system in maintaining world peace. The system is currently out of balance, with one superpower and several other significant powers jostling for prominence.

Western advocates of a renewed standoff between great powers are blinded by their biases, as China’s rise goes beyond Western experience. At a time of deep economic interdependence and with weapons unimaginable in the past, who can guarantee that a confrontation would not escalate out of control?

China has provided some new thinking and inspiration for solving the international security puzzle. The answer involves major countries breaking through the constraints of outdated Western security theories and charting a course that is comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable.

The discovery of a Chinese surveillance satellite over the continental U.S. has led to the most direct speculation of direct conflict with China so far this year. America’s current and previous power struggles with hegemonic, powerful nations shows what may be missing from the equation when it comes to smoothing over U.S.-China ties.

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s head, visited South Korea and Japan recently on a proselyting mission to spread the concept of military deterrence. But China and others have adopted more benign security concept. The region cannot afford to repeat the mistake of replacing dialogue with a show of force.

Stephen Roach has long been one of Wall Street’s most influential economists. His work has appeared in academic journals, books, congressional testimony a