In the so-called Third Plenum to be held on July 15-18, China’s senior leadership will have an opportunity to establish the broad outlines of a policy framework that could reshape the country’s course for the next several years. Don’t count on it. There is good reason to think that China watchers in the West have unrealistic expectations of what is to come.

China’s 2019 government work report lays out the country’s economic policies to sustain growth and avoid the “middle income trap” that Premier Le Keqiang has warned of. In taking steps next year to realize the “Chinese dream,” three battles will be tough but key: defusing financial risks, effecting targeted poverty alleviation, and achieving pollution control.

Substantial international attention has been focused on this year’s meeting of China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Committee (CPPCC), much of it misguided and/or malicious. But there is a real reason for the Congress’s importance.

Casual observers of the proceedings of the annual National People’s Congress (NPC) may be tempted to dismiss them as a ritualistic exercise with little impact on the lives of the Chinese people. Such a conclusion, while not totally groundless, nevertheless misses an important public policy debate revealed during this year’s NPC session – reforming China’s troubled retirement system. The challenge confronting Beijing is simply the lack of money to fund the explosive growth of pension benefits.

In Western media, the National People's Congress -- China's legislative body which just ended its annual three week session -- is perfunctorily conjoined with the phrase "rubber stamp." This characterization is less and less true every year and does a disservice to understanding the most significant historic shift taking place in China today: the long march toward "rule according to law" from administrative fiat.

March sees the return of spring, the best season, as the Chinese believe, to begin the work for a year. China's Two Sessions now under way, however, differ from the previous ones in several senses.

China’s incoming government chiefs face huge tasks, amid deepening debate over China’s future. Internal challenges will dominate the Beijing agenda, but China’s new leaders and the Obama team must refocus on dealing with darkening trends in US-China relations.