Napoleon Bonaparte once said of China, “Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.”
In the late 19th and 20th centuries, internal chaos gave the rest of the world and the emerging United States a running start as China was challenged by warlords fighting, Japanese invasions, Western manipulation and occupation, internal civil disturbances, Mao’s disastrous Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.
That global slumber continued until Deng Xiaoping threw off the ideological yoke of the past and opened China to the world in the 1980’s.
Today, what happens in China does NOT stay in China. The greater fear is of a stumbling Chinese economy – a fiscal nightmare for the rest of the world.
According to Ross Terrill, a research associate at Harvard’s Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, China’s success or failure over the next two to three decades rests in four key areas:
1) Drive to achieve an ever-higher standard of living for a populace of still mostly poor people; (114th among nations in gross national income per capita according to the World Bank)
2) The preservation and unity of the enormous, multi-national territory, The People’s Republic of China;
3) The ability of China’s Communist Party to maintain its monopoly on political power;
4) China’s efforts to eclipse the United States in Asia and beyond.
Terrill believes that “In the first two areas, success is quite likely; in the last two, less likely.”
Many ordinary Chinese I have met in travels seem content with the current Communist Party’s one-party rule. Over the last three decades, their lives have grown remarkably better as the standard of living rose. Today, more than 400 million people have risen out of abject poverty into China’s middle class.
Are there shortcomings and problems? As with any rapidly changing country – absolutely!
The seeds of discontent simmer just beneath the surface and might erupt if: the social contract for a better life stalls, the gulf between the haves and the have-nots widens, environmental problems are not addressed or people feel oppressed.
The unspoken trade-off between the rulers and the ruled seems to be– If our (Chinese) lives improve, then you (the Communist Party) can remain in power.
The Chinese leaders appear more worried about internal threats than external ones as the second decade of the 21st century unfolds.
It is reported that China’s 12th Five-year Plan produced by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 17th Central Committee of the Communist Party (2011-2015) will focus on reducing the nation’s income disparity to a greater degree than the continued hot pursuit of national wealth.
Many China watchers believe that the Communist Party has concluded that their greatest threat to continued one-party rule may be a rise in social instability as outgoing President Hu Jintao called for the rise of a “harmonious” society. Some question whether the new social policy being fashioned may merely be a slogan designed to keep the peace.
For a more harmonious society, Chinese leaders must balance profit margins and economic growth against destroying their environment and improving the quality of life for ordinary people and minority populations.
China’s new Communist Party Secretary General Xi Jinping appears to understand that leadership and accountability must begin at the top to ensure a peaceful rise.
Prior to his pending elevation to the top Communist post in October, Xi warned that corruption has the potential not only to bring about the demise of the Party but to also bring about the downfall of the country. In a closed door meeting with members of the new Politburo of the Communist Party of China (CPC), it was reported that Xi spoke powerfully about the need to reverse out-of-control corruption from other nations that was directly responsible for political unrest and the ultimate collapse of those governments.
Not naming names, Xi was clearly referring to Egypt, Libya, and other totalitarian, corrupt governments, which have been tossed about in the wake of the Arab Spring revolutions.
Deng Xiaoping explained why the Chinese Communist Party was powerful in the past this way: “In the war years, we often said that if the Party member made up 30 percent of an army company, that company must be very good and have a strong fighting capacity. Why? Because Party members were invariably the first to charge and the last to withdraw on the battlefield, the first to bear hardship and the last to enjoy comforts in daily life … now some Party member are different. They join the Party in order to be first to enjoy comforts and last to bear hardships.
The fear is real that internal corruption, environmental degradation, lack of Party discipline, and oppression might bring down the Chinese Communist Party.
The U.S. can and will benefit from a stable and prosperous China. The Economist wrote: “A 20-percent rise in Chinese consumption might well lead to an extra $25 billion of American exports. That could create 200,000 American jobs.”
For the sake of the Chinese people and all humanity, let’s hope for China’s continuous, peaceful rise one that lifts all boats, lest the world will be caught in its undertow.
Tom Watkins serves on the University of Michigan Confucius Institute Board of Advisors and the Michigan Economic Development Corporation international advisory board. He is the former Michigan State Superintendent of Schools, and former President and CEO of The Economic Council of Palm Beach County, FL. He is currently a U.S./China business and educational consultant.
