Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Where do we go from here?

China's position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been closely watched and scrutinized. Two of the most prominent Chinese foreign policy think tanks – the Shanghai Institute for International Studies (SIIS) and the Tsinghua Center for International Strategy and Security (CISS), have added their voices to the robust discussion, with the release of a six-part series of analyses examining the impacts of the war in Ukraine on the global order and China's relations with the U.S., the EU, and Russia, as well as the future of global efforts toward arms control and economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Editors’ Message

In past 100 days, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has garnered intense and sustained global attention. In this rare wave of surging public opinions, we have seen a great deal of interest from around the world in how China views this conflict. And some countries, frankly, still have quite a few doubts about China’s views. At the same time, within China, there are widely divergent opinions about this conflict, as reflected in bandying arguments on social media platforms, each unable to convince the other side.

The report you are reading is the result of a joint effort by the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS) and the Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University. We have tried to examine the root causes, impacts and implications of the Russia-Ukraine conflict from the perspectives of international order, China-US relations, China-EU relations, China-Russia relations, arms control and world economy. As Beijing- and Shanghai-based think tanks on international studies, we hope to present diversified but balanced voices to the pertinent discussions in China, and to provide a Chinese voice to readers outside of China.

You will probably find, while the scholars’ assessment of the conflict is on the whole sobering, we certainly do not shirk from our effort to find a way out and propose solutions to the best of our abilities.

We are in an era of great transformation. We believe each generation has their own challenges, and with it, their specific responsibilities. As think tank scholars, it is our responsibility and duty to keep a close watch on the dark cloud looming over the sky, while not giving up our hope and pursuit for the silver line of the cloud.
Da Wei

Director of the Center for International Strategy and Security and Professor at Tsinghua University

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Crossing the Rubicon of International Order

Over two months after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a “special military operation” in eastern Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it is clear that the military progress on the Russian side is not going well. Ukraine’s resistance, backed by the West, has been extremely resilient. Up till now, the fighting has been going on for over 100 days, with the two warring sides still in an offensive and defensive stalemate. For how long will the war last? Will one side be completely defeated by the other? Will there be a spillover of the conflict? Will the situation undergo an escalation towards a third world war or even a nuclear war? Questions about this ongoing crisis can be listed in a long line, most of which no one can answer at this time. Yet among all the uncertainties, one thing is certain: what the Russian troops crossed on February 24 was not simply the land border between Russia and Ukraine, but rather more symbolically, the River Rubicon of the post-cold war international order.
Chen Dongxiao

Senior Fellow and President, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies

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The Last Boulder to Break the Camel’s Back?

In the year prior to Russia’s “special military operation” against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, there was already a “paradigm shift” in the interaction between the U.S. and China. The Biden administration has by and large inherited the containment policy from the Trump administration, with the difference being the former more focused on shaping an international environment that better facilitates the “containment of China,” while at least putting a verbal emphasis on setting “guardrails” to prevent the derailment of strategic competition. Correspondingly, Beijing is increasingly convinced that China-U.S. relations have come to a strategic stalemate of competition and struggle. The dominant narrative on the Chinese side is that this strategic competition between the two countries reflects the struggles for power, institutions, and perceptions, which will last throughout the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. In general, it is thus believed that competition and struggle have been adopted as key words for both Washington and Beijing in managing their relations.
Cui Hongjian

Senior Research Fellow and Director of the Department of European Studies, China Institute of International Studies

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Can China and the EU Work together amidst Difficulties?

As a geopolitical confrontation with global implications in the European region, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has an important and complex impact on China-EU relations. First, due to the different perceptions of the nature of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and related interests, there are differences in positions and discrepancies in mutual expectations between China and Europe, with political mutual trust being put to the test. Second, the Russia-Ukraine conflict along with the sanctions and counter-sanctions struggle between the West and Russia have exposed the fragility of the current international economic, energy and supply chain system, causing continuous damage to the foundation of economic globalization, thereby also eroding the economic cornerstone for China-EU cooperation. Finally, as the major powers of the US, Russia and Europe are involved in the conflict in different ways and to varying degrees, a highly complex pattern of major power relations has emerged, exacerbating instability in the transforming period of the international order and putting Sino-European relations under greater strategic pressure. Although the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become an uncertain factor in China-EU relations, an early resolution of the conflict in a peaceful manner, avoiding humanitarian crises, reducing economic and livelihood losses and maintaining the stability of the international landscape is in the common interest of the international community, including that of China and Europe, and should be the direction of joint efforts by both sides.
Zhao Long

Senior Fellow and Assistant Director of Institute for Global Governance Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies

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Time for Reinforcement of the Independent Value and Constructive Synergy of Sino-Russian Relations

In recent years, Sino-Russian relations have become a model of great power relations with high degree of mutual trust, high level of collaboration and high strategic value. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the assessment of the challenges for China-Russia relations in the external environment, the understanding of the conflict’s role in reshaping China-Russia relations, and the examination of the prospects of China-Russia relations have been critical in the analysis of how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will impact the game of great powers.

In the wake of Russia-Ukraine conflict, although the international system is still steps away from the brink of total collapse, it is an inevitable trend that the international system becomes increasingly vulnerable and fragmented. Recently, Russia was suspended from its seat on the UN Human Rights Council, and more are calling for its expulsion from the WTO, and the G20. In addition, the prevailing narrative of “democracy/autocracy” dichotomy and depiction of China and Russia as an “axis of revisionists”[3] indicate that the international order might be divided into two blocs according to security concepts and values. In this context, Russia might have weaker voice in global agenda-setting and multilateral affairs.
Wu Chunsi

Senior Fellow and Director of Institute for International Strategic Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Ramifications for Arms Control and Nuclear Disarmament

The raging Russia-Ukraine conflict is a stark reminder of the urgency of effective management of weapons of mass destruction. The international community must come together to restart the long-stalled international negotiations over arms control and nuclear disarmament by fully utilizing the existing mechanisms and platforms and generating greater consensus and impetus among all stakeholders. A staunch supporter of the international arms control and nuclear disarmament regime, China adheres to its longstanding nuclear policy of maximum restraint and remains committed to the pursuit of a new path leading to a world of enduring peace and stability.

No use of weapons of mass destruction has been reported by far in the Russia-Ukraine war, but the dynamics on the battleground and the Kremlin’s nuclear signaling have highlighted five gloomy—some even apocalyptic—nuclear scenarios.
Yu Xiang

Senior Research Fellow, International Institute of China Construction Bank

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The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Accelerating the Transformation of International Economic Order

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has provided new impetus to the centennial change in global order. Combined with the impact of global pandemic, this conflict has accelerated the transformation of international economic order from a US-dominated globalization process to the globalization driven by coexistence of multiple parallel systems.

From the economic and financial perspective, it was the inherent tensions leading to the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict, with its timing also of great concern to the world.