By Vasilis Trigkas and Students
As 2024 nears its end, one of the year’s most poignant moments stands out upon reflection: the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings. This well-deserved honor reflects the group’s unwavering efforts to reveal the catastrophic horrors of nuclear warfare and ensure that nuclear weapons will never be used again. Nearly 80 years have passed since the devastation of history’s only nuclear use, and while world leaders continue reaffirming the mantra that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” the world seems to be moving in the opposite direction.
The ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East bring the world alarmingly closer to the nuclear precipice. At the same time, the United States and China are seemingly heading toward an intensifying nuclear arms race, with officials from nuclear-armed states advocating for a return to nuclear testing—a shift that risks unraveling decades of hard-won arms control agreements. The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, with its far-reaching and unpredictable impacts on military affairs, further exacerbates this tension, ushering in a new era of strategic instability. The Cold War’s precarious “balance of terror,” is becoming more threatening by the complexities of cutting-edge technology.
In this period of critical uncertainty, where margins for error are razor-thin, President John F. Kennedy’s leadership, both during the Cuban Missile Crisis and in the relative calm that followed, provides invaluable lessons for proactive strategic action. During the crisis, JFK resisted falling into groupthink. He defied the advice of his Joint Chiefs of Staff, whose recommendations risked apocalyptic nuclear war, and chose diplomacy over destruction.
Kennedy’s vision, however, extended well beyond this moment of crisis. By establishing a direct hotline with the Soviet Union, he created a swift, confidential communication channel to defuse future acute tensions between superpowers. Crucially, Kennedy masterfully harnessed the power of rhetoric to rally public and political support for the Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT). The PTBT was a landmark achievement as the first arms control agreement of the nuclear era. It not only curtailed nuclear testing, reducing radioactive contamination in the atmosphere, but also helped mitigate the existential risks posed by nuclear weapons. With his powerful oratory, Kennedy transformed a technical agreement into a shared moral imperative, laying the groundwork for future efforts to manage nuclear competition and safeguard humanity.
In his landmark speech at American University which paved the way for the PTBT, Kennedy underscored humanity’s shared mortality, urging nations to avoid confrontations that could force adversaries into choosing between humiliating retreat or catastrophic nuclear war—a path he famously described as a “collective death wish” for humanity. The same “death wish” Kennedy worked against persists today, as major nuclear states invest in modernizing and drastically expanding their nuclear arsenals.
Kennedy envisioned a “world safe for diversity,” where nuclear powers, despite their inevitable differences, reject reckless brinkmanship and divisive “us-versus-them” ideological rhetoric. In today’s era of intensifying great power competition, amidst challenges that transcend national borders, from climate change and financial stability to pandemic preparedness and curbing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, global leaders must heed Kennedy’s call to recognize our shared mortality and the interconnectedness of our survival.
As students of Global Affairs, we recognize, as Kennedy did, that there is no panacea for peace. However, as JFK wisely observed, “peace is a process, a way of solving problems.” To honor the 61st anniversary of the Partial Test Ban Treaty’s ratification, an achievement realized through Kennedy’s visionary leadership, we call for the reinvigoration of great power dialogue and the unconditional acceptance of mutual coexistence as a necessary first step towards de-escalation and détente.
Just as Kennedy pioneered direct crisis communication, reinvigorated strategic arms controls with the Soviet Union, and maintained critical distance from his hawkish Joint Chiefs of Staff, today’s leaders should prioritize re-establishing structured strategic dialogues between nuclear powers, including dedicated discussions on AI-driven arms control. While the absence of robust verification mechanisms in AI technologies may make bilateral agreements difficult, it is the dialogue process itself that holds promise.
While President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed in Peru in November that any decision to use nuclear weapons should remain under human control rather than artificial intelligence, the absence of a structured framework for sustained strategic and technical discussions remains a dangerous gap. Sino-U.S. high-level strategic dialogues are now minimal. This is a stark contrast to the pre-2015 framework that once enabled more regular, substantive engagement on critical issues. The erosion of dialogue raises the stakes, leaving both sides without mechanisms to navigate the growing complexities of nuclear and technological risk.
Certainly, the nationalist fervor domestically in both China and the U.S., and the temptation for populist politicians to fan the flames of pseudo-patriotism will make it politically risky for leaders to champion a revival of strategic great power dialogue. But this is exactly where real leadership earns its stripes. Kennedy, working hand-in-hand with his speechwriter Ted Sorensen, crafted eloquent, impactful speeches that appealed to the better angels of human nature. They didn’t shy away from tough truths or complex ideas but instead mobilized public support for arms control by tapping into shared human values and challenging people to see beyond ideological divisions.
Similarly, today’s leaders need to engage the public by cutting through the populist noise. They need to speak plainly about the critical importance of reducing nuclear risks and tackling the unprecedented existential threats posed by AI-enhanced warfare. Major speeches, in the vein of Kennedy’s American University address or his 1963 remarks at the UN General Assembly, could do more than just inform, they could ignite a global conversation and call for creative action. That’s the kind of leadership we need right now: bold, clear, and unafraid to galvanize momentum towards de-escalation and eventual détente.
Following Kennedy’s vision, this process must, however, go beyond mere détente and lay the groundwork for meaningful cooperation between great nuclear powers. Only leadership can unleash this process. The kind of leadership that with foresight rises above circumstantial pressures, embraces the enlightened national interest, and channels the prudence necessary to usher in a renewed era of arms control. A leadership that doesn’t merely respond to crises but anticipates and proactively addresses the disruptive impacts of AI on global stability. It’s about leading with the kind of strategic foresight and empathy that JFK exemplified. A vision anchored in caution, courage, and the conviction that humanity’s shared survival demands the wise, steadfast path.
Note: This revised text represents the 2024 Declaration delivered by students of the Introduction to International Relations and Strategy class at Schwarzman College, Tsinghua University, in commemoration of President John F. Kennedy’s pivotal contributions to arms control and the mitigation of great power rivalry. The declaration seeks to honor JFK’s legacy while reflecting on the enduring importance of strategic leadership and diplomacy in addressing the challenges of contemporary international relations.
