After Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election in the United States, global concerns have emerged over potential disruptions to economic development and regional peace. Yet optimism abounds in the Middle East. Nations such as Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and even Iran view Trump’s presidency as an opportunity to restart negotiations. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas went so far as to call Trump to congratulate him.
The reason for this optimism lies in Trump’s perceived penchant for unprincipled, no-limits deal-making. Leaders in the Middle East believe they hold valuable bargaining chips and are ready to seize opportunities in a volatile new game.
Unlike his first term, Trump’s comeback will open a period of consolidated control. With the presidency, the Supreme Court and both chambers of Congress under Republican dominance — and with no significant challengers within his party — Trump is poised to break not only with Democratic policies but also with Republican mainstream positions. He may even distance himself from his own first-term policies. This newfound freedom provides him with the chance to reveal his true governing style, which could include the pursuit of bold and unconventional deals.
During his first term, with Jared Kushner as his Middle East envoy, Trump proposed the so-called deal of the century to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He offered economic incentives in exchange for Palestinian concessions on sovereignty. The plan was summarily rejected by the Palestinians and never reached the negotiation stage. Now, Trump has appointed New York real estate magnate Steven Witkoff as his Middle East envoy. Both Trump and Witkoff reportedly view the region not as a political quagmire but rather as a large real estate project.
Trump’s primary goals remain clear: He wants to extricate the U.S. from prolonged conflicts, reduce military spending and generate revenue. Diplomatic traditions, moral principles and regional peace are secondary considerations at best. For Trump, everything is negotiable in pursuit of these objectives.
This approach has transformed the Middle East into a chaotic black market of diplomacy in which courage and luck often outweigh strategy. Transaction costs are soaring and uncertainty is pervasive. In response, regional players are hedging their bets, preparing for contradictory outcomes and flooding the landscape with mixed signals. Even before Trump takes office, Middle Eastern countries are frantically preparing their hands for the deals to come.
Israel stands to be the biggest winner from Trump’s victory, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu harbors doubts. Based on leaked information about Trump’s appointments — figures, along with Witkoff, such as Marco Rubio for secretary of state, Mike Waltz as national security adviser, Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Huckabee as ambassador to Israel, form a pro-Israel dream team for Trump. However, if Trump strikes deals with Iran, Saudi Arabia or other regional players, Israel’s interests could still be impacted.
Recently, Israel has been actively promoting cease-fire talks with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Netanyahu hopes to finalize a cease-fire agreement before Trump takes office on Jan. 20, presenting it as a political gift to the incoming administration, while seeking reciprocal support from the U.S. on Gaza and Iran.
On the Gaza front, Netanyahu has so far resisted ending the conflict, fearing a potential collapse of his coalition due to pressure from National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. However, Netanyahu may fear Trump even more. If Trump pushes for an end to the war, Netanyahu will need significant bargaining chips to win Trump’s favor and prevent the coalition from falling.
Iran, while ostensibly a loser in Trump’s victory, still holds cards to play — most notably its nuclear program. During the U.S. election campaign, Iran reportedly made a written commitment not to pursue the assassination of Trump. After the election, Iran communicated to Trump’s transition team that it would abandon attacks on Israeli soil and was open to negotiations.
Simultaneously, however, Iran has ramped up its nuclear activities to strengthen its bargaining position. Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was limited to 300 kilograms of uranium enriched to 3.67 percent. But it currently possesses 6,600 kilograms of enriched uranium at various levels, including a dramatic increase in its stockpile of 60 percent-enriched uranium from 17.6 kilograms to 182.3 kilograms — enough for four nuclear warheads.
Meanwhile, Trump’s team has signaled plans to reimpose “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran and roll back its nuclear program. Yet it has also expressed a willingness to negotiate. Reports suggest that a senior Trump ally, Elon Musk, has already held talks with Iran’s representatives to the United Nations.
Over the past eight years, the U.S. has alternated between extreme sanctions and peace negotiations with Iran, employing a dual strategy of pressure and diplomacy. Neither approach has been effective. During the 2019 period of “maximum sanctions,” Iran’s oil exports plunged as low as 200,000 barrels per day, severely damaging its economy. In response, it orchestrated multiple incidents in the Persian Gulf, bringing it to the brink of war with Saudi Arabia.
Iranian attacks on Saudi oil facilities, the downing of an American RQ-4 Global Hawk drone and missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Iraq in 2020 all occurred under Trump’s watch. Yet, Trump refrained from military retaliation in these instances. This allowed Iran to discern Trump’s red line — a reluctance to go to war. Consequently, Iran is likely to counter America’s maximum pressure campaign with a strategy of brinkmanship, using the threat of conflict as leverage in negotiations.
Recently, Saudi Arabia has made a surprising policy shift, seemingly moving closer to Iran while distancing itself from Israel — possibly to gain leverage for future negotiations. Saudi Arabia has criticized Israel’s military actions in Gaza, condemned its strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon and denounced its attacks on Iranian territory. Moreover, Saudi Arabia participated as an observer in the joint military exercises conducted by Iran, Oman and Russia in the Indian Ocean and even sent its chief of general staff to visit Iran.
Oscillating between China, the U.S. and Russia, as well as balancing between Israel and Iran, Saudi Arabia appears to be positioning itself strategically, perhaps preparing to negotiate from a stronger stance when Trump returns to office.
However, Middle Eastern politics are far more complex than real estate transactions. Unlike the regulated and predictable framework of modern property deals, international politics operates in a perpetual state of anarchy. Major deals in such an environment often produce unforeseen consequences.
The Abraham Accords, touted as Trump’s most successful diplomatic achievement during his first term, have largely failed to deliver on their promises. The U.S. pledged to sell F-35 fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates, ensure Bahrain’s security against Iran, lift sanctions on Sudan and recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over the western Sahara. Yet, few of these commitments have been fulfilled. The UAE has not received the promised F-35s, Sudan remains mired in civil war, the legal enforceability of Bahrain’s security guarantees remains unclear and the western Sahara dispute remains unresolved. According to recently uncovered Hamas documents obtained by the Israeli Defense Forces, the Abraham Accords were one of the key triggers of the Oct. 7, 2023, Gaza conflict. The Hamas attack on Israel was, in part, an effort to obstruct Saudi-Israeli normalization.
For the nations of the Middle East, any initial optimism about potential major deals is likely to be short-lived. The prudent course of action is to fasten their seatbelts and brace for turbulence ahead.
