The most likely scenario for a degree of success is that Iran stops short of building a weapon. This would pressure the U.S. while keeping strategic risks under control. But prospects for trouble are looming this year. All parties will have to work for the best while preparing for the worst.

Consultations with island authorities on trade shows American double-dealing. The visit undermined core Chinese interests and had a negative effect. It will do harm but no good in China-U.S. relations and will only undermine U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Beijing visit.

It is the mission of the think tank to stay on high alert against potential risks and explore possible solutions to challenges. The international system is currently undergoing the most dramatic changes since the end of the Cold War. The peaceful and open international environment, which has been taken for granted over the last four decades, is now overshadowed by formidable challenges. In this context, it is the think tank’s responsibility to explore and identify external security risks that might pose threats to China in the months and years ahead.

The United States, sees strategic parallels between the situations in Ukraine and Taiwan. It thinks lessons learned from Ukraine may serve as a model for dealing with China on Taiwan. But the differences are significant. To “Ukrainize” Taiwan is to provoke war rather than foster peace.

The occupation of Ukraine by hostile Russian forces was one of the primary global focuses last year. The great powers entangled in the conflict touch almost every region of the international community and have pushed Russia and China closer together.

A approach to regional security that’s heavily based on deterrence will only lead to more insecure outcomes. Military strength is an important component, but it should not be pursued to the virtual exclusion of diplomacy. Regional consensus is essential.

The thought of full-blown war with China has become mainstream in the aftermath of Russia’s Ukraine invasion. A potent mix of simmering animosity and economic concerns have created a heated climate that both sides need to take a step back from before the U.S. or China falls victim to the intoxicating pull of escalation.

Mimicking the American-style approach of guarding against imaginary enemies, Japan’s recently released documents will have a significant impact on relations with China and other countries. Its effort to achieve strategic autonomy is a tall order, as the U.S. doesn’t want too much of that.

It is clear that China has little chance of changing Russia’s hard-line position in its war with Ukraine. Nor can it solve the “Russia problem” in the West. It can only act as it sees fit to safeguard the interests of the Chinese people.

War would be a disaster for all. And as Washington policymakers seem to be moving further in that direction, China and the U.S. must contemplate the consequences of military conflict and remember that it would not be their leaders who pay the price, but their people.