China and the United States have quite different views on what the current international order is. For the U.S., it is “rule-based” or “liberal,” while for China it is based on the UN Charter and universally accepted international law. The two perspectives overlap and differ at the same time. As a matter of fact, the world order has undergone many changes since the end of World War II — from the Yalta order to the Cold War order, and then to yet another one after the end of the Cold War.
The 30-plus years since the end of the Cold War may be divided into two stages. The first lasted to the middle of the second decade of this century. With the three mega trends of globalization, multi-polarization and scientific and technological advancement, the order and landscape of the world changed for the better in many ways. The bipolarity of U.S.-Soviet race for global hegemony was replaced by a world with one sole superpower and multiple others, with markedly less geopolitical friction between the major powers, whose relations no longer featured antagonism but cooperation and engagement.
Multilateralism developed rapidly both globally and in different regions, leading the United Nations to a consolidated position and role in the international system, including a thriving World Trade Organization, regional multilateral free trade areas and various multilateral political security and cooperation mechanisms.
Traditional security challenges declined while non-traditional ones gradually increased. The international community began to engage and strengthen cooperation in global and regional governance. During this period, positive progress was made in arms control and nonproliferation. The Kyoto Protocol and the Paris agreement were reached in response to global climate change. Remarkable achievements were made in international anti-terrorism cooperation and peacekeeping missions.
The second stage is from mid-2010 until today. During this period, negative impacts of globalization, multi-polarization and technological change on the world order have become increasingly manifest. Unbalanced development of globalization has led to the rise of populism and trade protectionism, with tides of de-globalization emerging and free trade and technological cooperation increasingly hindered. The U.S. during Donald Trump’s first term started the trend.
Multi-polarization is still developing, alongside the reappearance of increasingly fierce geopolitical competition. In recent years, the U.S. and Russia have been in a new cold war, while China and the U.S. are on the edge of one. An arms race involving the great powers is on the horizon.
Technological changes continue to accelerate, leading to higher productivity. On the other hand, in many new security fields — in the absence of relevant international laws and regulations — cyberwarfare is intensifying, and the world also faces serious risks of war in outer space, facilitated by AI.
Multilateralism has been severely challenged by unilateralism. The roles of global and regional multilateral frameworks have declined because of divisions and opposition, with the UN and WTO seriously weakened and UN Security Council resolutions rendered useless, with a single country exercising its veto power on many occasions. Global governance is beset with difficulties.
These developments continued throughout 2024. The war between Russia and Ukraine and the one in the Middle East are still hot. Confrontation has intensified between the U.S. and China/Russia. Trade liberalization has been further hindered. And the risk of climate change has continued to rise. A report released by the Australian Institute for Economics and Peace and Peace Research Institute Oslo suggested in June that the number of global military conflicts and wars in the past two years was the highest since the end of World War II.
Trump — who, during his first term demonstrated unilateralism, withdrew from multiple international treaties, launched trade and tech wars, vigorously expanded armaments and pursued a policy of “peace through strength” — was re-elected for another four-year term. This may have a strong, or even subversive, impact on the post-Cold War international order. Trump’s style in the first term, combined with policy statements during the recent political campaign and the team he is assembling, suggests danger ahead.
In this situation, globalization may be further unraveled, deformed and laden with difficulties. Multi-polarization will not stop, but major-power relations will be more divisive and confrontational, with the potential of spreading a new cold war to the whole world. Without new multilateral laws and regulations, the accelerating technological changes may well brew risks that are very hard to predict.
After the end of the Cold War, China thought peace and development had become the theme of the times. However, in light of the changes of the past decade, peace and development have again been challenged.
What does this mean for China? What decisions does China have to make? Here is my take:
First, for a long time to come, China will face more comprehensive and severe challenges. Opportunities will appear now and then but on a far smaller scale than will the challenges. We must have a very sober mind and think deeply.
Second, as a world power second only to the U.S. — and increasingly a “superpower” in the eyes of many other countries — China must take greater responsibility for maintaining and improving the existing international order. It needs to maintain global multilateral frameworks, prevent a new cold war and promoting world peace and development.
Third, China must take good care of its own domestic affairs. It must focus on economic development; pursue reform, growth and stability in a balanced manner; and promote all-around socioeconomic progress.
Externally, we must follow, without wavering, the path of peaceful development; adhere to an independent foreign policy of peace, partner with the Non-Aligned Movement and hold fast to multilateralism to foster solidarity with the majority of nations. Only in this way can we overcome the severe challenges coming our way and steadily push forward the great causes of modernization and reunification. We must shoulder the unshirkable responsibilities of a major country in today’s world.
