This year marks the 35th anniversary of the establishment of Sino-US diplomatic relations. Thirty-five years may be negligible from the perspective of human history. Yet for Sino-US relations, these have been unusual years of extraordinary, far-reaching significance.
In the 35 years, trade between the two countries has grown from a meager $2450 million in 1979 to over $500 billion; personnel exchanges have risen from the thousands in the beginning to nearly 4 million in 2013. Bilateral collaboration on regional and international issues has continued to improve in both breadth and depth. Today, the two are not only coping with global challenges such as the financial crisis and climate change, but are communicating and coordinating closely over such regional concerns as the Korean nuclear issue, the Iran nuclear issue, and the Syria crisis. Even those most optimistic about Sino-US relations in 1979 could not have anticipated the relationship could have reached its current level.
In the 35 years since China and the United States normalized relations, the United States won the Cold War, experienced a golden period of national development in the 1990s, and has seen its national might reaching a historic high; while China has witnessed a peaceful and stable environment for national development, gradually integrated itself into the international community, made impressive headway in reform and opening up, and made conspicuous achievements economically. The Sino-US relationship has become a precious example of two major countries of different social systems, patterns of civilization, and in different stages of development achieving “win-win” outcomes through cooperation. It is on such a basis that we have the confidence to put forward the concept of a new type of major-country relations between China and the United States, and the confidence to put it into practice.
Looking back on Sino-US relations over the last 35 years, a core prerequisite for success is that the two countries must formulate a certain strategic foundation. In terms of both population and geographic scales, China and the United States are indisputable “gigantic countries”. Their relations are inherently strategic. And a certain kind of strategic foundation is indispensable. The 35 years of Sino-US relations can be divided into three stages. From 1979 to 1989, the strategic foundation of the relationship was the need to join hands and prevent threats from Soviet expansionism. Sino-US strategic cooperation was not only a positive variant preserving international peace and stability in the Cold War era, but also promoted change in the international order. From 1992 to 2009, the strategic foundation for the relationship was the roadmap for national development proposed by Deng Xiaoping that highlighted a peaceful rise within the existing international system. China strived to integrate itself into the US-dominated international system. The United States accepted China and to some extent helped to build China into an important partner in the process of globalization. From 2009 on, with the tense rivalry at the Copenhagen climate meeting and the US “pivoting” to the Asia-Pacific as hallmarks, China and the United States have sunk into a vicious circle where the strategic foundation for bilateral ties loosened, strategic competition intensified, and strategic suspicion deepened. There has been an imperative need to find a new “ballast” to stabilize Sino-US relations. The proposal of the new type of major-country relationship is an important attempt to build a new strategic foundation for Sino-US relations. Whether or not the two could successfully establish such a relationship entails not only efforts by both parties, but also some luck from the perspective of history, because it depends on whether the peoples of both countries can demonstrate the awareness and courage to break through the fatalism of major power confrontation.
Looking forward to the next decade, Sino-US relations will face more challenges. In addition to the three main chronicle problems regarding Taiwan, Tibet and trade (3T), there will be eight new ones (8N). Firstly, competition for leadership in the Asia-Pacific. China is the largest trading partner of 18 of its neighboring countries. Although China has no intention to drive the United States out of Asia, the two may come into actual competition for influence in the region. Second, a narrowing gap between Chinese and US militaries. Military and high technologies are “hard pillars” of US hegemony. Currently, Chinese military capabilities have been rapidly rising with the support of a strong industrial basis. The United States has an increasing sense of urgency about this. Third, competition in cyberspace as a game of major powers has increasingly become an important aspect of Sino-US relations. Fourth, as industrial upgrading speeds up in China, and internationalization of the Renminbi accelerates, the mutual complementariness of bilateral trade is on decline, and competition is intensifying. Fifth, China is going to the sea. In American eyes, the United States is a marine power, while China is a continental one. China’s turning to the oceans is seen as a challenge to US maritime power. Sixth, Chinese society is becoming increasingly pluralist. It is more difficult than in the past to reach a consensus on policy-making regarding the United States. Seventh, although China does not use the “Chinese model” to summarize its path of development, western media are increasingly adopting the expression. Once the “Chinese model” becomes a consensus in American decision-makers, a new ideological rivalry may become a part of Sino-US relations. Eighth, the sense of US insecurity is on the rise. Such a sense of insecurity derives not only from worries about the rise of China, but also from its declining self-confidence. The outbreak of the financial crisis and serious polarization of social wealth have brewed discontent in American society. The sense of insecurity makes it even more difficult to get along with the present-day United States.
Although Sino-US relations face the dual challenge of the absence of a strategic foundation and the entanglement of old and new problems, bilateral ties can still overcome the bottleneck and enter a brand-new era of a “new-type of major-power relationship” considering the following three conditions.
The first is about the subjects themselves. From the perspective of scale of the countries, both China and the United States are “gigantic countries”, none can defeat the other, so they have to find a way to co-exist. From the perspective of nature of the countries, both are “civilized countries”, instead of nation states in the usual sense, so they have the inclusiveness of big countries. From the perspective of the structure of power, both are countries in the “all-round champion” style with both hard and soft powers, their hard competition can be mitigated by soft power in various manners. From the perspective of the essence of social culture, the two have plenty in common: Social culture in both countries displays flexibility, and is pragmatic in nature, so they are good at mutually beneficial cooperation; secular forces are strong in both countries, which is conducive to social exchanges; both countries are self-confident and tolerant culturally, which helps in seeking common ground and preserving differences.
The second is about time. China and the United States are still in the “nuclear age”. The equilibrium of nuclear deterrence has restrained them from armed conflicts; both countries exist in a time when the “global civil society” is taking shape and “mass politics” is awakening, which features anti-war sentiments, and appeals for conflict resolution by non-confrontational means; the two countries exist in a time when international mechanisms are relatively complete and international laws are becoming rigid, acting against rules of the United Nations and international norms will incur more severe punishment; the two countries exist in a time when global challenges are rapidly increasingly. No problem of a global nature can be accomplished without the participation and collaboration of China and the United States.
The third is about interdependence. China is a beneficiary of peaceful development. It will stick to the path of peaceful development in the future, and will not overthrow and change the current international order and system. The Chinese and US economies are highly interdependent. The $500 billion-plus trade volume and the $1.2 trillion worth of US treasury bonds in China’s hands have resulted in a scenario of “economic assured mutual destruction” similar to that of nuclear deterrence. Between the two countries, social connections are increasing, personnel exchanges are frequent, activities of local cooperation, cultural exchanges and non-governmental interactions are active, formulating a strong and stabilizing public opinion basis for bilateral ties; at the government-to-government level, the two countries have established more than 90 dialogue mechanisms, covering various aspects of their relations. A framework of communication has taken shape between China and the United States, which is being continuously improved, and injecting positive energy into Sino-US relations.
Based on the above three conditions, we are full of confidence in the future development of Sino-US relations as well as the establishment of a new type of major-country relationship.
Jin Canrong is Professor and Associate Dean at School of International Studies, Renmin University of China, People’s Republic of China.
Dong Chunling is an assistant research fellow at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.
