Diplomacy is a continuation of domestic politics. Every election season in U.S. domestic politics features partisan rhetoric, voter appeals, competition between interest groups and debates on foreign policy. In the run-up to the 2024 election, we can observe how domestic politics is effecting change in U.S. foreign policy in at least five dimensions:
• First comes the partisan bid for power. Political polarization has intensified the power battle between the Democratic and Republican parties. To mobilize voters, the two parties have unveiled totally different — even opposing — domestic governing ideas and global visions. The Democrats cling to liberalism domestically and aim to defend a liberal international order, while the Republicans continue with their populism, which shows up in foreign policy as zealous nationalism and unilateralism.
In this presidential election, Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, presents herself as an optimistic liberal. She and her party are envisioning a future America featuring economic prosperity, low inflation and cultural diversity, one in which the middle class can profit and the vulnerable can receive help. They are weaving a narrative in which the United States, in concert with its allies, needs to confront its rivals to build confidence in Washington’s ability to regain global leadership and reestablish the liberal international order. Hence the Democrats plan to continue with the current administration’s domestic and foreign policies — to “build back better” and win the major power competition through investing domestically, collaborating with allies, supporting Ukraine and NATO to cripple Russia and strengthen America’s Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump clinched the Republican nomination and appears as a pessimistic conservative. He and the GOP are stoking voter fears over illegal immigration, free trade, globalization and the external world generally, in addition to raising the possibility of World War III. Thus, Republicans have outlined an “America first” policy approach with the slogan “Make America great again" (MAGA), under which the country should build an even more powerful military, deport illegal immigrants, beef up border security and deal with China, its main rival, through strategic contraction in Europe and strategic concentration in the Asia-Pacific.
• Second is the canvassing of racial and ethnic groups. The United States is home to the largest immigrant population in the world. Immigrants and their descendants typically have dual identity — with roots in both the U.S. and their home country. Under most circumstances, immigrants hope that Washington can adopt policies benefitting their home country or region. But in other cases they expect the opposite.
During the election campaign, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has brought turmoil to major U.S. cities and college campuses. Sympathizers on both sides have been mobilized by this Middle East collision. Their protests and campaigns have not only influenced Washington’s Middle East policy but intensified political infighting.
As a voter base for the Democratic Party, Arab Americans with deep sympathy for the Palestinian people, and seeing a humanitarian disaster unfold in Gaza, are in high dudgeon over the Biden administration’s military support for Israel. In February, Democratic voters of Arab heritage in the key swing state of Michigan sent a clear, sharp message to President Joe Biden (who was running for reelection at the time), that forced him to pressure the Israeli government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reduce the civilian death toll, allow aid into Gaza without obstacles, reach an immediate cease-fire with Hamas and free the hostages.
Jewish Americans are divided over whether to give Israel their full backing. Orthodox Jews and related ethnic groups, working with the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee, have been supporting Israel unconditionally. They think that Israel, in addition to being a victim of the Hamas terrorist attack, is threatened by Iran and its proxies and therefore requires U.S. protection. While pressuring the Biden administration, such organizations are actively endorsing Trump and the GOP. Trump has unswervingly supported Israel and the Netanyahu administration. To weaken Jewish support for the Democratic Party, the former U.S. president has criticized the Biden administration for constraining Israel and charged that Jews who vote for Democrats “hate their religion.” In turn, Netanyahu has been using the GOP’s support to bind Israel’s interests with those of the United States — for example, in his speech to Congress — and he has subsequently put pressure on the Biden administration.
• Third is the influence of public opinion. Politicians shape public opinion, which in turn influences politicians, the election and diplomacy. The two parties have major differences over the Ukraine crisis, which has continued unabated for more than two years, and whether Washington should continue to provide aid to Ukraine. Public opinion is split on this issue, and even Republicans in Congress are divided.
Republican populists represented by Trump believe that continued aid to Ukraine is a waste of American taxpayers’ money because Ukraine cannot defeat Russia outright or drive Russian troops away from all the territories they have occupied. Hence the U.S. should stop aiding Ukraine and force it into cease-fire negotiations. As the conflict continues, an increasing number of Republican voters have objected to continued funding for Ukraine, which has further consolidated Trump’s viewpoint.
The Democratic Party, represented by Biden and Harris, believes the Russia-Ukraine conflict has severely debilitated Russia and that Russia will be defeated as long as the U.S. and Europe continue sending weapons to Ukraine. Democrats also believe that Ukraine can ultimately achieve its goal of joining NATO. Overall, Democratic voters support the policy of continued aid to Ukraine, and no significant protests against the war have occurred. Thus the incumbent government lacks strong motivation to adjust U.S. policy.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is not enthusiastic about another Trump presidency, so he launched an offensive with Biden’s acquiescence, sending troops into Russian territory to prove that Ukraine still has capability and volition to damage its larger neighbor. In doing so, he is not merely seeking to gain the upper hand in future negotiations with Moscow but is also attempting to influence American public opinion and the upcoming election.
• Fourth is the role of crucial swing states. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, nestled in America’s Rust Belt, are key swing states that decided the outcomes of recent elections. In 2016, Trump sealed the presidency by winning these three states. In 2020, Biden went all in on rebuilding the Democratic “blue wall” and won the White House. This year, the two parties have been vying ferociously for the support of Rust Belt voters, and the views of those voters will naturally seep into Washington’s foreign trade policy.
The Biden administration announced plans in May to increase tariffs on $18 billion in Chinese imports to “protect American workers and businesses” from what he said were China’s unfair trade practices. This included a quadrupling of duties on electric vehicles to 100 percent, a doubling of tariffs on solar cells to 50 percent and a hike up to 25 percent on certain steel and aluminum products. Automobiles, steel and aluminum are pillar industries of these three swing states. To win the election, Biden is expected to introduce straightforward policies to woo the voters and labor unions there.
Likewise, Trump attaches enormous importance to this region. He has threatened on multiple occasions to slap a 60-percent tariff on all Chinese imports and a 100 percent duty (or even higher) on Chinese EVs. He would also remove China’s permanent normal trade relations status. In another move, Trump nominated J.D. Vance, the Ohio senator who touts his Midwestern roots, as his vice presidential running mate. Vance, who made a name as the author of “Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis,” shows a strong propensity for right-wing populism.
The Rust Belt is set to decide the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. To win, politicians are scrambling to adopt trade protectionist measures against China, subjecting Sino-U.S. economic relations to U.S. domestic politics.
• Fifth are the attitudes of economic interest groups. The nature of American politics is interest-group politics. Interest groups try to influence the nation’s diplomatic decisions for their own purposes while complying with its foreign policy strategies. As the world’s two largest economies, China and the U.S. have a wide range of common interests in economy and trade. Both the Democratic and Republican parties seek to decouple or de-link from China. However, this inevitably gives rise to conflicts of interest within the U.S. and has led to heated policy debates.
Trump has been calling for “economic independence” for the U.S. and a complete decoupling from China, while Republican hawks have been calling for a new cold war. They are attempting to shut down American investments in China, as well as high-tech exports. They seek to limit Chinese investments in the United States, as well as Chinese imports. They display a more hostile attitude toward multinationals, Wall Street and interest groups that have connections with China.
Companies that have business ties with China, including U.S. agricultural interests, once lobbied the Trump administration to lift tariffs on Chinese products but failed to make much difference. Defense corporations and local manufacturers with little to zero connection with the Chinese mainland have shown support for Trump in escalating the conflict with China.
“De-risking” — the concept endorsed by the Democratic Party — is a kind of limited or gradual form of decoupling. From “near-shoring” to “friend-shoring,” Democrats aim to slow China’s economic growth and in particular curb its technological progress and industrial upgrading. Further, they don’t think it necessary to adopt the excessively restrictive policies the Republicans have adopted on Chinese multinational companies. Multinationals may, in their own interest, prefer the Democratic nominee to Trump.
In many circumstances, these five dimensions affecting U.S. foreign policy overlap with one another. For example, the automobile interest group in key swing states across the Rust Belt has become a crucial community in determining the country’s foreign policy development in this election campaign. Arab and Jewish Americans are not only ethnic groups but also interest groups representing part of public opinion. These communities and constituencies are exerting influence on the political parties, which are, in turn, shaping their political leanings.
Each U.S. presidential election is a political game in which candidates compete for the majority of voters and the majority of electoral votes. During this process, different interest groups try to influence the campaigns’ policy formulation. Interest groups in crucial swing states will play an enormous role in the fierce partisan rivalry to gain influence. That influence will extend beyond their actual voting power.
