On the whole, Obama and Romney have achieved certain common understandings on China. They have acknowledged that China's growth benefits the US and the world. However, they are still concerned about China's rising influence in the future. Both the Democrats and the Republicans are especially worried about China gaining a competitive edge in the economic field. Since they view the China-US relationship as a combination of cooperation and competition, a strategy of both“engaging”and “containing”China has been presented as an effective approach.
No matter who wins the election in November, the China-US relationship will be faced with challenges. However, the two countries will become more interdependent, and will have to engage in more cooperation in the future. A new type of relationship between the two major countries is likely to be established in certain forms.
Issues concerning China have been discussed extensively during the campaigns and China has been a focus of the two candidates. The “rise of China and tomorrow's world”was among the five topics in the third and final presidential debate.
Although the Democrats and the Republicans have realized that the China-US relationship is characterized by both cooperation and competition, they tend to emphasize and even exaggerate what they deem to be the downsides of the bilateral relationship.
With China's rapid development and expanding influence in international affairs, the US has to acknowledge the fact that China is a rising power. In previous US presidential elections, China was similarly used as a political card, but was usually described as a country to be shaped by the US. As a contrast, in the current campaign, both political parties have paid more attention to a rising China and hoped to see China become cooperative.
The problem is that the US is still concerned that China's rise will mean uncertainties. Unsurprisingly, the China card has again been played in the election. Obama and Romney are both prone to emphasize the potential of increasing competition with China in the future.
Both candidates are blunt about China, especially on economic issues. Recently, while Mitt Romney accused Obama of being soft on China, President Obama took measures to block Chinese investments in the US market citing so-called “national security risks.” Obama issued a presidential order to prevent Ralls Corp., which is owned by two executives of Sany Group, from owning four wind farms in Boardman, Oregon. The US House of Representatives Intelligence Committee released a report, recommending that regulators block Huawei and ZTE from buying US companies, adding that government computer systems should not include components made by them.
Beside security concerns, the US often blames China for Americans' own domestic problems such as unemployment. Obama stated that the tariffs he imposed on Chinese tires in 2009 protected thousands of American jobs, while his competitor called Chinese manufacturing enterprises“cheaters”who were stealing American jobs.
In the geopolitical and military areas, both candidates have emphasized containing China. Obama stated that with his policy initiative, the U.S. is rebalancing towards Asia and has strengthened ties with regional allies. He said that he is planning to deal with China's rise with smart power. From Romney's perspective, Obama's efforts were not enough, and in addition to smart power, hard power is also needed and must be strengthened. Therefore, Romney is against cutting down military expenses and suggests maintaining powerful forces in order to deal with China's accelerating military build-up and prevent China from any“provocation”or“threat”against its neighboring countries.
No matter who becomes the president, the economic and trade relationship between China and the US will experience some turbulence. A friction in this field is inevitable.
However, the other side of the coin is that whoever becomes the president needs to cultivate the China-US relationship. There have been sober voices in the US calling for comprehensive and unbiased judgment on China. Some analysts and officials have realized that if all the countermeasures proposed by the candidates are actually implemented after the election, the US interests will be undermined.
China has become the second-largest economy and will maintain rapid development in a relatively long period of time. China is also an important player in the international community and will gain more clout in the future. As the No.1 economy and the only superpower in the world, the US will probably define China as a major competitor in the world, not necessarily a major enemy or threat. The most likely situation will be that the two countries will become more interdependent and their crucial interests more intertwined. A new type of relationship between the US and China is likely to be shaped, and the potential for cooperation is remarkable.
Su Xiaohui, Research Fellow, Department of International Strategic Studies, China Institute of International Studies
