Any U.S. decision to restrict imports based on the argument that an abundance of low-priced raw materials from a diversity of sources somehow threatens national security would lower the bar so significantly as to invite every other member of the World Trade Organization to invoke national security to protect favored industries.

Both sides benefit from economic exchanges.

Despite the tensions between the two nations in both economic and geopolitical arenas, Washington and Beijing have generally recognized the mutual benefits of trade. This form of “controlled tension” has in the past been able to navigate the contours of various trade disputes. All that changed in 2016.

China’s Commerce Ministry has launched an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into American exports of sorghum, which is believed to be underpriced and damaging to Chinese farmers. This may result in the imposition of tariffs on sorghum imports from the U.S. The action appears to be retaliation against tariffs imposed by the U.S., and may result in a larger trade war.

Now that the White House seeks to turn China’s steel and aluminum overcapacity into a national security matter, America’s new protectionism risks international trade discord.

Trump risks the US Dollar for a trade war with China.

It is not uncommon for CFIUS to block acquisitions, but recently there has been intensified scrutiny toward China and the technology field in particular.

The US should cool it on China.

The world has to prepare itself for a new monetary cycle following rising US interest rates.

There are only two major pathways open: a continuation of relatively minor actions on both sides that nonetheless could spiral into a tit-for-tat trade war that no one wanted; or then a concerted effort on both sides to engage in negotiations.