Whether the world economy recovers or declines in the coming year will depend upon a number of complex interlocking factors. Unlike SARS, the COVID-19 pandemic endangers the security of the real economy and increases worries.

While the fast-changing nature of COVID-19 makes economic interventions difficult to predict, China's uneven economic recovery may serve as a roadmap for other countries overcoming the outbreak.

The coronavirus pandemic deflated President Trump’s touted trade deal, as data suggests that Beijing will likely fail to meet key commitments due to suppressed global demand. If coronavirus kills the US-China trade deal, other political and economic disagreements could escalate the US-China rivalry into a potential Cold War.

The stability that was expected from the signing of the Phase One trade deal is now a distant reality in the wake of COVID-19. The U.S. and China are entangled in blame games and trade disputes, setting the stage for further, more devastating escalation.

China appears to have considerable room to maneuver in terms of monetary policy. It also has an enormous domestic market and a middle class as large as the European Union. But this doesn’t mean it is turning inward.

China’s digital yuan development program could eventually undermine the dollar’s global primacy in international trade. Its implementation would spark discussion surrounding the overall utility of current global trade relationships under a single reserve currency.

The US is looking at banning Chinese companies that have listed on US stock exchanges, a result of renewed concern of fraudulent practices surrounding fast-growing Chinese companies. Were the rules that Chinese companies not following actually going to prevent fraud in the first place, and is there an alternative?

New regulations that require heightened scrutiny of Chinese investors in the name of national security only add to the risks Chinese enterprises face when investing overseas and nudge decoupling forward.

While the Eurozone is increasingly at risk of fracture, China benefits most from a unified Europe. China should be weary of European skepticism towards China’s aid during the COVID-19 crisis, especially as the EU debates its own internal dilemmas.

The coronavirus outbreak has shaken global supply chains, causing massive ripples in the international market. It is only to be expected that there will also be major changes to how companies approach supply chain management and practices too.