Among the many factors pointing to economic uncertainty, the most significant is the tariff and trade war that Donald Trump has pledged to initiate. At the same time, from a global perspective, the overall macroeconomic situation improved over the past year and could continue in a positive direction.

China's tightening economic controls, lack of transparency, and foreign investment challenges could strain its global economic relationships and exacerbating tensions with the U.S. and its allies. Additionally, there’s increasing skepticism about China's growth and business environment, potentially accelerating economic decoupling and mutual losses for both China and the West.

In an era of growing tensions between the United States and China, Roberta Lipson brings a valuable perspective shaped by decades of experience across the two cultures. As an American who has spent nearly half a century in Beijing building a network of 11 hospitals and 25 clinics, Lipson understands the complex interplay between business, healthcare, and international relations. In this conversation with KJ Kerr of China-US Focus on the sidelines of the U.S.-China Hong Kong Forum in November, she speaks about her remarkable journey and offers thoughtful analysis on the future of bilateral relations amid uncertain political times.

The incoming administration in the United States is expected to intensify export controls on China and strengthen measures to block overseas markets for Chinese technology products. However, Donald Trump’s new team, steered by his pragmatic approach, may ease the pressure in some sectors.

The two major powers should go beyond their differences and work together to advance global industry and offer even greater joint contributions — finding new ways to secure a peaceful, mutually beneficial relationship.

Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese imports serve his nationalist base but ultimately act as a deceptive "shell game," shifting costs to American consumers and producers. While some industries may benefit short-term, the broader economy and middle-class Americans will ultimately bear the long-term consequences.

China's leadership has acknowledged the need to prioritize consumption and foster entrepreneurship, but these goals require deeper systemic reforms and a bolder embrace of risk-taking to reignite growth and confidence in the economy.

China’s GDP growth slowed during the first three quarters of 2024, from 5.3% to 4.7% to 4.6%, raising fears that the country would not achieve its annual growth target of around 5%. But the latest data suggest that China’s economy is finally turning the corner.

The business model that underpinned Chinese economic growth for over two decades has collapsed in recent years, especially since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, the combination of rising uncertainty and falling confidence is casting a dark shadow over the Chinese economy.

The Chinese stock market has rallied recently in anticipation of another round of government stimulus. This is understandable, as the authorities have rolled out multiple monetary and fiscal stimulus packages to stave off deflation and boost GDP growth. But with public debt already well above historical norms, there is limited room for further fiscal intervention without risking a future debt crisis.