Esteemed observers of China eagerly anticipated the recently concluded pivotal session of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee — the third plenum of its 20th session — as the pre-meeting atmosphere often contains hints of the final outcome. These outcomes typically aim to unify and steer the Party’s future actions in executing the agenda of the Standing Committee.
China’s economy remains a critical issue, shaped by domestic struggles and international challenges. A notable meeting in May led by President Xi Jinping with Chinese business leaders in Jinan introduced significant initiatives, including tax reforms, to address local government fiscal issues and proposed interest rate adjustments to enhance internal economic circulation. The measures received mixed reaction from the business community both within and outside China. However, the upcoming visit by delegates from the U.S.-China Business Council immediately after the plenum was a positive sign, indicating a move in the right direction through increased engagement.
China’s foreign policy, especially its relations with the United States and ongoing trade disputes with the European Union, remains a focal point. The trade surplus, particularly in electric vehicles, presents a challenge, as the EU seeks to avoid past mistakes made in the solar panel industry.
In my opinion, a recent speech by former Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tianhai at Shanghai Tech University’s commencement ceremony on July 7 signaled a potential shift in China’s stance toward international engagement, especially with the U.S.
“Blindly idolizing America is clearly neither scientific nor objective,” he said. “On the other hand, thinking that America will henceforth decline irreparably is also a one-sided and absolute view, equally unrealistic and inconsistent with objective laws. America indeed has many problems — serious ones — but its military strength, financial power, technological innovation and cultural influence still lead the world and maintain an advantage.”
Those who closely monitor China understand that people in Cui’s position do not speak solely for themselves on important matters such as foreign policy. So this shift is significant and warrants attention for future developments.
Tensions across the Taiwan Strait continue to be a major concern. While some experts anticipate potential conflicts as a result of leadership changes in Taiwan, combined with internal pressures on the Chinese mainland, recent statements suggest that unification, although a goal, is not imminent. This reflects strategic patience and possibly a new approach to handling this delicate issue.
The domestic political landscape in China is generally stable and orderly. It is not customary for China to extensively explain internal events to the world, which often leads international media to exaggerate events to satisfy reader curiosity and boost sales. Issues such as corruption and misuse of power are global, not unique to China, and should not be overly interpreted or magnified.
President Xi’s strong hold on both the Party and state apparatus, coupled with a commitment to the Open Door policy, demonstrates a readiness to engage more vigorously on the international stage. This approach aims to restore the confidence of global business leaders and investors and to foster a more optimistic outlook for China’s economic and political future.
Challenges persist, including the EV dispute with the EU and the imposition of trade barriers on European companies in China. Recent discussions with American companies in Hong Kong highlight the interconnected nature of these issues and underline the importance of economic focus over national security to enhance Hong Kong’s image and stability. As the former U.S. Consul General Hanscom Smith often said, “Let Hong Kong be Hong Kong,” a place that values business and freedom, distinct from the mainland. This distinctiveness is crucial for attracting foreign business and talent to both Hong Kong and the mainland.
Through this sort of comprehensive analysis, stakeholders are encouraged to consider both the expectations set before the plenum and the realities that follow, offering a clearer insight into China’s strategic direction and its global implications.
