Nov 08, 2019

China’s GDP growth may still be strong by global standards, but the annualized rate of 6% in the third quarter of 2019 is the lowest the country has recorded since 1992. In fact, China’s GDP growth has been slowing steadily since the first quarter of 2010, when it exceeded 12%, year on year. This downward trend is riskier than many observers seem to realize.

Sep 12, 2019

In early August, the renminbi’s exchange rate broke through the psychological threshold of CN¥7 per US dollar. While investors were still digesting the full significance of this event, US President Donald Trump’s administration startled the market by labeling China a “currency manipulator.”

Jul 05, 2019

The path to ending the trade war remains far from clear.

Apr 30, 2019

After a disappointing performance in 2018, China’s economy appears to be stabilizing. In the first quarter of 2019, GDP growth, at 6.4% year-on-year, matched that of the previous quarter. But growth in industrial production exceeded expectations, expanding by 6.5% year on year (and by 8.5% in March). Even exports growth was positive, albeit weak, despite the ongoing trade war with the United States.

Mar 01, 2019

China must think twice before accepting the U.S. request to stabilize the renminmi.

Oct 31, 2018

Whatever costs the US incurs from trade with China are vastly outweighed by the benefits. If Trump wants to sacrifice those benefits in a trade war, so much the better for China.

Aug 30, 2018

While some observers are concerned by the fall of the Chinese currency, past experience offers a clear lesson: don’t panic.

Apr 24, 2018

The Trump administration gives no credit to China.

Mar 05, 2018

Whatever challenges China faces, the PBOC must not lose its nerve. For the sake of China’s continued economic stability and progress, it needs to convince markets that it is committed to a floating exchange-rate regime.

Jan 03, 2018

For the last decade or so, China’s economy has been on something of a roller coaster ride. As 2018 begins, is the country approaching a new ascent, a steep drop, or something in between?