May 08, 2024

American involvement in the Ukraine war is partly driven by moral imperatives, but the deeper reason is concern for its own future security. NATO’s reliance on Washington could increase as Russian power is drained, but it will be difficult to change the tactical balance on the battlefield.

Apr 19, 2024

If Donald Trump returns to the White House next year, it might represent a turnaround for Russia. Although President Vladimir Putin has said that Russia would prefer Joe Biden, he also cannot fail to see an opportunity in Trump to continue his quest to restore Russian dominance, starting with Ukraine.

Mar 22, 2024

As more relatively weak countries find themselves unable to stay out of the war, China must walk a careful path. It must avoid and mitigate risks, safeguard its national interests and put Ukraine on the road to peace at an early date. To this end, it needs a more flexible and pragmatic strategy.

Feb 20, 2024

Judging from the current international mood, neither an armistice nor peace talks will likely come about this year, and the war will continue to drag on between Russia and Ukraine. At some point, it will become politically untenable in the West and financially unsustainable in Russia.

Jan 02, 2024

A stalemate on the Ukraine battlefield has settled in, and the U.S. is adjusting its strategy. The new idea is to preserve Ukraine’s territorial integrity while perfecting its war capacity. Instead, it should be isolating Russia politically and economically.

Dec 01, 2023

In the competition between major powers, rational ones will choose strategies to protect their own interests. Irrational ones are likely to fall into a trap laid by rivals in which the cost of influence in underdeveloped regions becomes overbearing and results in retreat.

Oct 11, 2023

The war in Ukraine has provided the Biden administration with a chance to realize America’s geopolitical ambitions. Courting the nations of Central Asia could become a major Western success story. But it’s just as likely to end in catastrophe.

Sep 08, 2023

The personal tragedies of two great physicists during the Cold War teach that us that creating a tolerant, innovative environment is the way to prosperity and strength.

Aug 25, 2023

Russia’s suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which had allowed Ukrainian grain to reach the market, has exacerbated the food crisis facing the global South. While the conference excluded Russia, it provided an opportunity for China to step forward.

Aug 25, 2023

At the recent international security gathering, China made clear that it opposes military hegemony — where a superpower seeks to settle disputes by force. China, by contrast is working to bring the international community together to shape a new order that is more just and reasonable.