Oct 12, 2020

The country’s biggest risk today is economic isolation from the rest of the world. It must continue to participate actively in the world economy and contribute what it can. Total self-sufficiency is possible for China only with a decline in its standard of living.

Jun 10, 2020

A great deal of interest is focussed on the level of Chinese real GDP in 2020. The Chinese GDP in 2020 depends crucially on two developments—the speed of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 epidemic and the availability of additional economic stimulus.

Mar 02, 2020

Just as the COVID-2019 epidemic appears to be under control in China, new and serious outbreaks have occurred in South Korea, Italy, Japan, Iran and elsewhere. The virus seems to be ubiquitous and unstoppable. While I am hopeful that the epidemic in China will be over by the end of March, I begin to worry about the possibility of overseas visitors to China bringing the COVID-2019 virus back, starting another episode of the epidemic again. China cannot afford to have its hard-won and costly victory over the COVID-2019 virus annulled by a few infected visitors from abroad.

Feb 16, 2020

Just when the daily number of newly confirmed COVID-2019 coronavirus cases seemed to have levelled off in China, it has an unexpected steep jump, from 2,015 to 15,152 on 12 February, or more than 750%. The overwhelming bulk of the increase came from the Province of Hubei, where the number of newly confirmed cases increased from 1,638 to 14,840 on 12 February.

Feb 08, 2020

In 2003, during the SARS crisis, I was still living in the U.S. In March of that year, based on data on the occurrence of newly confirmed cases since the first SARS case was identified in Guangdong in December 2002, and taking into account the isolation and quarantine measures then in place, I predicted that the epidemic would end in June, which it actually did. How did I manage to do so?

Jan 29, 2020

The Phase One Agreement between China and the U.S. on their trade dispute was signed in Washington, D.C. on 15th January, sealing a temporary truce in their trade war, which had already lasted almost two years. This is a most welcome development, not only for China and the U.S., but also for the rest of the world. It is expected to usher in a period of relative calm and stability as well as reduced uncertainty and unpredictability, which should in turn increase both investment and consumption globally, and result in higher rates of economic growth.

May 24, 2019

While the trade war clearly hurts China more than the US, in both absolute and relative terms, data and historical experience show that these losses are manageable for the Chinese economy.

Jul 31, 2018

Though China can endure a trade war with the US, the damage it will do to both countries, and their relationship, will be significant.

Apr 19, 2018

The U.S. should produce new products for export to China to reduce the trade deficit.

Apr 16, 2018

If there is an autonomous (unanticipated) increase in the demand for exports from the U.S. which increases the real GDP of the U.S. in the process, it is possible for the U.S. trade deficit to be reduced.