Middle East tensions have escalated as Israel has expanded hostilities from Gaza to Lebanon and even attacked a UN peacekeeping base there. There are indications of a potential war with Iran, following Iran’s missile strike on Israel on Oct. 1, which involved approximately 200 missiles. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran had made a grave error and would pay the price. However, it is unlikely that Israel would dare to engage in a full-scale war with Iran.
Israel will seek the prior consent of the U.S. before waging war on Iran. But the Biden administration is not keen on seeing the Middle East conflicts spiral out of control. Since October 2023, Israel's operations in Gaza targeting Hamas, have resulted in the deaths of over 40,000 people, including many women and children. This form of collective punishment has increasingly isolated Israel internationally. The Biden administration’s staunch support for Israel has also led to a significant crisis of reputation for the U.S. in the Arab world and globally, with large student rallies at many U.S. universities showing solidarity and support for Palestine.
Despite numerous visits by President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Israel, Egypt and Jordan over the past year, they have failed to broker a cease-fire in Gaza. Now, the conflict in Gaza not only persists but Israel has entered into a conflict with Lebanon. The situation in Gaza is spreading. Should Israel go to war with Iran, it would further exacerbate instability in the Middle East. This is not good news for the U.S. presidential candidates in November or for the Democratic Party’s prospects. Nor does it serve America’s national interests.
Reports indicate that the Biden administration strongly opposed Israel’s threat to strike Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities. A U.S. official recently revealed that Israel has focused its potential retaliation on Iran's military and energy infrastructure. But no final decisions on the timing or execution of such actions have been confirmed by Israel. In essence, the U.S. is not opposed to, and might even support, Israel’s military operations against Iran proxies, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. However, direct strikes against Iran raise concerns about a possible large-scale escalation. Given the risks of an uncontrollable conflict, it is not likely that the U.S. would easily sanction a direct attack.
Further, Israel is already stretched across multiple conflict zones, making the prospect of a decisive victory in a full-scale war with Iran uncertain. Netanyahu highlighted this challenge in a speech marking the anniversary of the recent escalation in the Gaza conflict, stating that Israel is actively defending itself on seven different fronts. This widespread engagement underscores the complexity of the region’s conflicts and the difficulty of securing a clear win in a potential large-scale confrontation with Iran. These include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Houthi forces in Yemen, militants in the West Bank, Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria and Iran itself.
Iran is the perceived orchestrator of groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Escalating a comprehensive conflict with Iran would further strain Israel’s military resources. Regarding the buildup of its military, Iran’s objective is to develop the strength necessary not only to defeat Israel but also to deter and repel the United States military if necessary. Iran’s military, while constrained by outdated equipment due to sanctions, is formidable, with a claimed 600,000-strong force. They bring to the table the experience gained from the eight-year Iran-Iraq war and underpin the country’s capacity for sustained warfare.
Ultimately, the launch of a war with Iran would be ethically unjustifiable. Iran’s missile attack on Israel in early October was a response to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal, who was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president, and the subsequent deaths of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps General Abbas Nilforushan. The missiles targeted Israeli military bases and resulted in no casualties or material damage.
Iran’s newly inaugurated reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian has demonstrated significant restraint, asserting that Iran does not wish to start a war but will firmly counter any threats.
Given these circumstances, the United States is also keen to prevent an escalating cycle of “strike and retaliate” between Israel and Iran, which could spiral into an uncontrollable and devastating Armageddon in the Middle East.
