Due to anxieties over America’s decline as a superpower, the weakening of its world leadership and China’s successes in taking a unique development path and achieving considerable military modernization, the Obama administration has adopted a strategy of rebalance towards the Asia-Pacific region since 2011. It is a comprehensive strategy covering the security, diplomatic and economic fields. The goals are to consolidate U.S. leadership, regulate international rules, and reinvigorate U.S. economic competitiveness in the Asia-Pacific region. Though somewhat controversial, the strategy has become a grand strategy and been incorporated into many newly released state-level strategies, such as the National Security Strategy, National Military Strategy and Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy.
After five years of implementation, the U.S. has gained two strategic benefits: One is comprehensively obtaining strategic interests in terms of a more active, integrated and “justice-seeking” diplomatic posture, a shift of military center of gravity, and a revival of economy; the other is successfully putting some strategic pressure on its competitor, China, and making China’s surrounding situation more complicated. However, the U.S. is having to pay some prices, including a heavier strategic burden to fulfill its commitments to its allies, a new round of regional arms race, and a more confrontational China-U.S. relationship.
Looking ahead, obstacles to the U.S. rebalance strategy might be: slashed defense budget, rising terrorist forces, Asia-Pacific allies’ and partner’ hedging against the rebalance strategy, uncertainty about the upcoming U.S. presidential election, increasing “anti-access/area denial” challenges, and China’s higher tolerance for risk. All these obstacles will raise the costs of the rebalance strategy.
Hence, the U.S. strategy of rebalance towards the Asia-Pacific region will focus on innovating the R&D of new weapons, equipment and operational concepts as well as the employment of existing ones, and reinforcing military capabilities of and interoperability between allies; enhancing communication and coordination within the U.S. government and between allies and partners to reach a consensus on a consistent Asia-Pacific strategy and then to implement it in a consistent way; continuing dialogues with competitors and strengthening crisis management; accelerating economic engagement with Asia-Pacific countries.
To China, U.S. rebalance will still be conducted by the “two hands” of cooperation and competition. As suggested by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)’s report Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2015: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnership, on the cooperative side, the U.S. will make use of a mix of engagement, deterrence, reassurance and shaping to build a constructive US-China relationship, including making sure both sides act on agreed rules of behavior, managing crises at the political and military levels, directly discussing difficult issues such as North Korea, the South China Sea, cyberspace and outer space, and creating more space for China to contribute to regional peace and prosperity.
On the competitive side, the U.S. will also get well prepared to confront a high-intensity conflict with China. Specifically, the U.S. will actively respond to “anti-access/area denial” challenges, with an emphasis on air and missile defenses and longer-range precision strikes against China’s key nodes and systems. As recommended by the CSIS’s report, the U.S. military should increase the number of submarines and large surface ships, station a second aircraft carrier in Japan and a second amphibious ready group to the Pacific, speed up the deployment of THAAD systems in South Korea, further the development of the Long Range Strike Bomber and Unmanned Carrier-Launched Surveillance and Strike System, and develop “asymmetric, cost-imposing” technologies. In capability building, deterrence forces will be given greater importance, in order to stop China’s “aggressive and coercive” activities, and prevent “the rise of a hostile hegemon within Asia that would threaten U.S. interests in the Pacific”.[1]
In response to the U.S. rebalance strategy, China has proposed the Belt and Road initiative and the new type of major-country relationship. In future, China should closely follow U.S. adjustment of the rebalance strategy, guarding against and preparing for any possible worsening scenario. China should not give up its principles in handling the relations, but should be more active, practical and effective in expanding cooperation, and continue to facilitate the building of a new type of major-country relationship between China and the U.S.
[1] Center for Strategic and International Studies, Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2015: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnership, January 2016, p.10.
