General Fan Chonglong, who since November 2012 has served as the first vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, is very likely to retire in two years. Born in May 1947, he will turn 70 in May 2017 and, according to custom, will exit the CMC at the 19th National Party Congress in the fall of that year. The question is, who will be his successor?
The first and most obvious candidate is General Xu Qiliang, the second vice chairman of the CMC. Though three years younger than Fan, Xu in fact has even more substantial political and military credentials. Xu joined the People’s Liberation Army in 1966, three years earlier than Fan; became a CCP member in 1967, two years earlier than Fan; and was admitted to the Central Committee of the CCP in 1992, a whole decade earlier than Fan.
Throughout almost his entire military career, Xu was promoted in the PLA Air Force much earlier than Fan reached equivalent positions in the PLA Army. Xu was appointed as a division commander in 1983 at the age of 33, seven years earlier than Fan, who was made a division commander in 1990 at the age of 43. Xu was promoted to army commander in 1990 at the age of 40, five years earlier than Fan, who was made an army commander in 1995 at the age of 48. Xu was promoted to chief of staff of the PLA Air Force (a position with a rank of deputy regional chief) in 1994, six years earlier than Fan, who was made chief of staff of the Shenyang Military Region in 2000.
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