As Sheila Smith of the Council of Foreign Relations noted this week, the LDP victory in Sunday’s election likely means another four years in office for current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. That’s unwelcome news for Chinese officials, who have often pointed to Abe’s personal political tendencies as the cause of a worsened China-Japan relationship. With Abe guaranteed power for the next few years, Beijing will have to choose whether to modulate its response to Abe for the sake of better bilateral relations – or whether to stick firm to a hardline stance criticizing the prime minister’s rightist tendencies.
The official response from China’s Foreign Ministry was carefully crafted. Asked about the election results in Monday’s press conference, spokesperson Qin Gang explained China’s interest in Japanese domestic politics. “Any change in Japan’s policy in the military and security fields indicates where the country is heading for and bears on the security environment of the region,” Qin said. He added that China hopes Japan “can learn hard lessons from history, conform to the trend of the times featuring peaceful development and win-win cooperation, [and] respect the legitimate and reasonable security concerns of countries in the region” – a standard line from Chinese diplomats.
However, the question that preceded Qin’s answer points to deeper insecurities about Abe’s reelection. An unnamed reporter noted concerns that Abe’s electoral victory “will enable him to get rid of the pacifist constitution and get Japan fully armed.” In official discourse, China is remaining neutral, adopting a wait-and-see attitude toward Abe’s future moves. By contrast, at the semi-official level, Chinese media are not shy about airing concerns that Abe will continue to move Japan down a path toward militarization and unchecked nationalism.
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