The first formal meeting of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will be held sometime in mid-June. This is the moment when its somewhat abstract current nature will start to move toward more concrete actuality. At the moment, the Chinese-led AIIB, with its 57 members, has been a grand idea in search of practical form. Starting in June, the bank will start to focus on doing what it was ostensibly set up to do — investing in core assets in the world’s most dynamic region.
There are three broad scenarios for how the AIIB tale might unfold. Each of them will pose challenges for the United States in particular, as the most vocal skeptic about the AIIB venture. Whether the bank fails or succeeds, the world is a different place now that it exists.
The first scenario is that the bank proves, quickly, to be a success. The naysayers who wondered about its ability to conform to high standards of governance and transparency will see an entity operating entirely in line with international norms, and fulfilling a hugely important function. In this scenario, the AIIB will be challenge one of the stronger arguments used by supporters of the “China threat” theory, particularly in the United States. It will give powerful evidence that China is a status quo power, that it is able to play the international game according to rules largely laid down by others, and that it can show real leadership and work with other countries. This would be a huge fillip to China’s soft power credentials and a problem to those who constantly accuse it of holding more nefarious motives.
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