As Chinese leaders attempt to guide their slowing economy into a soft landing, they’re counting heavily on People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan to keep conditions stable. It’s a daunting task. Firming U.S. growth is increasing the odds the Federal Reserve will boost interest rates soon. Europe, meanwhile, is on the precipice of renewed turmoil as Greece spars with euro-area finance ministers. Japan is limping out of recession slower than hoped (growing an annualized 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter), raising the chances of additional Bank of Japan stimulus.
With 560 basis points worth of monetary ammunition to use before interest rates go negative, Zhou would seem well-armed for the challenge. But what if he has fewer options than optimists think?
Comments over the weekend by Guan Tao, head of international payments at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, suggest Zhou’s ability to ease may rapidly be evaporating. The problem? Fast-rising “uncertainty and instability” for capital shifts — conditions, Guan warns, that are eerily reminiscent of the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis.
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