About two months into his presidency, Donald Trump has already made bold moves and his foreign policy was taking shape, gradually. Before and even after he won the presidential race, Trump criticized President Barack Obama for his foreign policy, describing it as disastrous and voicing his views that were sharply different from that of Obama. This gave people an impression that Trump would adopt new policies in foreign relations, perhaps making substantive changes to the traditional US foreign policy and some contractions in US global strategy.
The reality, however, tells a different story. Most of Trump’s rhetoric and new thinking about foreign relations have not materialized, and he basically has returned to the old track of conventional US diplomatic thinking.
On relations with US allies, Trump once called the NATO “obsolete”, was pessimistic about the role of the European Union, and wanted to play down relations with US’ allies in Europe. Shortly after taking office, however, he immediately dispatched his vice-president, secretary of state and defense secretary to visit EU countries, in an attempt to appease them. He also stressed that the NATO is the cornerstone to the “unbreakable alliance” between the US and Europe, and that it should be further strengthened.
On relations with Russia, he made several positive gestures to Russia, and even said that he would recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Later, however, he toned that down and claimed that he is the “toughest” towards Russia as compared with all former US presidents, and has decided to increase NATO military presence in some Eastern European and Baltic nations to up the ante in containing Russia.
On the global stage, Trump once said that he would outline a peaceful US foreign policy that would replace Obama’s, which he claimed had caused “chaos” and “disasters”. Trump also said that he, unlike all other presidents, would not try to preach universal values and democracy to other countries, and signaled that he would reform the global strategy of the US and restrain US hegemony and expansionism. However, he has failed to deliver on those promises. Shortly after he became the president, Trump strengthened American military forces in Europe, consolidated the US-Japan and US-South Korea alliances, and hastened the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in South Korea. He also announced a 10% hike in the military budget, the biggest defense spending boost since the end of the Cold War, in a move to build the most powerful conventional and strategic military force, which he described as a “strategy of peace through strength”. In essence, it’s meant to guarantee US status as the world superpower through seeking absolute military advantages and strengthening its military alliances.
In addition, Trump also announced some unilateral moves, including the executive order banning citizens from some Muslim-majority nations from traveling to the US, which is widely regarded as discrimination against Muslim countries; threw his weight behind Israel to challenge the Arab world and proposed to move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem; denounced the US-Russia Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and the Iranian nuclear agreement as “bad” deals, in preparations to annul the agreements; advocated trade protectionism in disregard of the WTO rules; and insisted on building walls along the borders with Mexico.
All this indicates that Trump has not only inherited the global hegemonic strategy of his predecessors, but doubled down on some aspects. It is natural that he turns out to be conservative in his diplomacy.
First, his eyebrow-raising statements against the US diplomatic traditions were actually not all out of his true intention. In nature, he is a rightist conservative. The “America First” slogan he raised was meant to place the interests of the US above those of all other countries. Many major members of his Cabinet are either superrich or politicians from the hawkish conservative groups.
Second, the ultimate goals of US foreign policy are to pursue hegemony and the Westernization of the world. This is considered the foundation of the lasting and thriving Western capitalism, and is also an important part of the US political system. His support for Brexit, vision for a pessimistic future for the EU and the desire for closer relations with Russia all reflected his true intentions. Strengthening the US-Europe alliance and containing its strategic rival Russia are at the core of US’ foreign policy. If Trump does not change the “new thinking”, it would be considered a betrayal of the US traditional system, and would not be tolerated by the establishment that has ruled the US.
Third, the claim of “under-the-table deals” with Russia continues to haunt Trump. There are speculations that Trump won the election due to support from Russian hackers, his friendly remarks about Russia raised doubts about his relations with Moscow. Reports on “under-the-table deals” with Russia, said to be made by several core members of his cabinet, have caused a stir in the US, leading to the resignation of Trump’s national security adviser Michael Flynn.
Attorney General Jeff Sessions is also under pressure due to his contacts with Russia. Relevant departments are also investigating if Trump himself was involved in dealings. Democrats in the Congress have vowed to make a thorough investigation and to launch the impeachment proceedings if investigations prove Trump was involved. The claim of “under-the-table deals” with Russia might turn out to be a “fatal point” for Trump, and in order to relieve pressure and quell speculations, Trump would react by playing tough against Russia.
Fourth, Trump’s remarks that belittled the EU and the NATO have caused dissatisfaction among its European allies, and sowed seeds of discord. There is strong displeasure among the EU nations and the elite groups in the American political arena. Under external and internal pressures, Trump would have to change tack and try to mend ties with EU countries.
Of course, the changes in Trump’s foreign outlook also yielded some positive results. On his China policy, he has changed from a tough stance against China to a rational and pragmatic attitude. His foreign policy has yet to take full shape, and there is room for adjustment. It is hoped that Trump would understand and adapt to the trends, and make positive adjustments so as to bring benefits to America and the international community as well. Otherwise there will be serious consequences for world politics and economy. Trump has been stressing the need of “Making America Great Again”, but the negative impact of his policies would run counter to his goals. Trump needs to reflect on his foreign policy and think twice before leaping.
