Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will visit the United States on Friday and Saturday. Although he has been in office for less than two months, he has vowed to strengthen the US-Japan alliance to respond to the “threats” of China and North Korea. However, he has never explained exactly how he intends to strengthen the US-Japan alliance or what it means today.
In fact, Abe cannot explain how to strengthen the US-Japan alliance. Times have changed and the raison d’être for the alliance, the Soviet Union, no longer exists.
It seems that Abe is trying his best to “flatter” the US by trying to accommodate the US’ rebalancing to the Asian-and-Pacific region and contain China.
Everyone in Japan, China and the US knows perfectly well that Abe’s words and deeds are simply swashbuckling tricks. What Abe wants most is to take advantage of the US and free Japan from the Cairo Declaration and Potsdam Proclamation. Abe is also desperately eager to amend Japan’s Pacifist Constitution, which was authored by the US for Japan after the World War II to “normalize” Japan as a state, so the country can exercise the right to collective self-defense. If all Abe’s wishes are realized, Japan will expand its military power and return to its militarist path.
Abe is certain to get something from his visit to the US, as the US is using Japan for its own strategic purposes in East Asia and Japan has shown enough loyalty and been of enough value to the US for it relaxes its control of its ally to some extent.
However, the US is the boss of the alliance and it will never grant Japan equal footing. Nor will it let Japan return to its path of militarism or allow itself to be used by Japan. The US will never let itself be a stepping-stone for Japan’s ambitions. It is well-aware that it will open Pandora’s Box if it indulges Japan and permits it to regain its savagery, which would not only hurt China and the other Asian countries, but also the US. This is the “red line” that Abe will never be able to cross.
Although there are some frictions in Sino-US relations, the most important bilateral ties in modern world are maturing and becoming more stable as each successive friction is overcome. The increasing interdependence of the US and China guarantees they will seek a new model for relations between big countries.
The new US Secretary of State John Kerry has expressed doubts about the need for the US to increase its military power in the Asia-Pacific region, adding the US should strengthen its ties with China.
Japan’s right-wing media has been dissatisfied with Kerry’s comments, describing his attitude to China as “eye-catching”. They cannot understand why Kerry says China presents more opportunities than challenges to the US.
But recent surveys indicate a growing number of US citizens regard China as a more important country to the US than Japan.
Improving Sino-US ties are what Abe fears the most, as they will undermine his efforts to use the “threat” of China as an excuse to remilitarize Japan and will lead to Japan being increasingly marginalized.
However, Abe shouldn’t worry too much. For the foreseeable future, the US will continue support Japan creating disturbances for China, so long as they are under the US’ control, because the US is still trying to balance cooperation with containment as it comes to terms with China’s peaceful rise.
So how the situation in East Asia will evolve depends on the US — the ball’s in its court.
Wang Yusheng is China’s former APEC senior official, and the Executive director at the Strategy Study Center of the China Foundation for International Studies.
